U.S. telemedicine visits are estimated to grow 22-fold to 130 million by 2018 from only 5.7 million in 2014. Who will be affected most?
Telemedicine is going to move some somebody’s cheese:
- WellPoint says it will increase telemedicine access to 32.5 million enrollees in 2015 from only 4 million in 2014.
- Aetna says it will increase telemedicine access to 8 million enrollees in 2015 from 3 million in 2014.
- Park Associates estimates that 5.7 million total telemedicine visits were provided in the U.S. in 2014, and that this number will triple to 16 million in 2015, and reach 130 million by 2018.
So what does this mean for medicine?
First, it means those 130 million telemedicine visits in 2018 are going to shift from somewhere else. Office-based physician practices, urgent care, walk-in clinics, and emergency departments will all be affected by this new mode of medicine distribution.
Second, it also means lower reimbursement for telemedicine visits than office visits. Right now Medicare still compensates the rendering physician the same rate for office visits and telemedicine visits, but Wellpoint and Aetna are not bound to Medicare’s edict for commercial patients. Wellpoint reports that telemedicine visits are $60 to $70 cheaper than physician office visits (i.e., $40 vs. $100).
It is already a fluid time for medicine, and this makes it difficult to predict who the winners and losers will be from telemedicine. Patients’ access to medical care has changed substantially in recent years as the number of alternative services have increased. There are many moving pieces on the board.
Pharmacies and retailer chains are operating thousands of walk-in clinics staffed with nurse practitioners.- Urgent care clinics and free-standing emergency departments are growing very aggressively.
- Despite a six years surge of physician practice sales and physician employment arrangements, strong alternatives have emerged in direct primary care practices and concierge medicine.
Telemedicine is a change in the distribution of medical services, similar to the changes in book and music distribution through the internet, ebooks, and MP3 technology.
In any case, it is not the smallest or poorest professionals who are worst affected, but those who are the least adaptable. Now is a prudent time for learning more about the telemedicine laws in your state, experimenting with new systems, and putting together a business plan.
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